I ran my own blog from November 2006 till October 2014. All posts are still online, but I don't have time to update it anymore. Please note that all images and media files have been removed when the backup was moved to a new host in early 2016. Enjoy!
This year we've seen some major changes that will definitely affect the global software development market in the following years. And I'm not only talking about the iPad, iOS or Android here.
The most important element may be the appearance of first HTML5 demos, which clearly show how HTML5 and CSS3 may change the way we're experiencing the web. HTML5 will take us to a completely new level when it comes to online apps, games and tools, and I guess we'll see some very impressive things here within the next few years.
I think HTML5 is a real Flash killer - Flash will probably still be around for a few years, but it will become less important and loose its position as the number one tool when it comes to interactive apps or games, and we'll see a massive Flash decline in 2015 or even much earlier. Even some Microsoft guy just announced that they will drop their plans to market Silverlight as a Flash counterpart and to bet on HTML5 instead.
Big bonus: Microsoft finally admitted that their Internet Exploder browser is total crap (well, they didn't say it that way, but they definitely meant it), and now they're trying really hard to build the very first browser that finally respects web standards, including HTML5 and CSS3. And they're doing quite well by the way.
And then there's the Oracle/Sun deal. The purchase of Sun by Oracle has lead to the end of Open Solaris, and soon we'll probably see the end of Open Office - not that Oracle will drop it, but maybe everybody else will. And a lot of people even worry about the possible future of Java. Not only Google or Android developers, but probably the entire Java industry.
Personally I think Sun, Solaris, Open Office and Java are lost as they've fallen into the hands of the dark side, and I'm definitely not willing to bet anything on these technologies anymore. It's just too risky after all.
Anyway, if you compare the technologies I mentioned here then I'd say that HTML5 and CSS3 represent a (hopefully) bright web based future for both content and applications, while the entire Oracle "old world stuff" will sooner or later end up in a very dark corner of some obscure computer museum.